The sign of k decides the fate of a matter-filled universe. The dividing line is the critical density — about five protons per cubic metre — and a flat universe grows as t to the 2/3.
The Friedmann equation contains one constant, k, or equivalently the conserved quantity E=−kc2/2. In the second half of Lecture 7 Guth shows that its sign decides the whole future of a universe filled with ordinary (pressureless) matter.
The second term is always positive and shrinks as the universe grows. Everything depends on E:
E>0 (k<0), open universe.a˙2 never drops below 2E, so the universe expands forever, never slower than a minimum rate.
E<0 (k>0), closed universe. The system is gravitationally bound. a˙ falls to zero when the universe reaches its maximum size, then the expansion reverses and the universe collapses toward a=0 — the Big Crunch.
E=0 (k=0), critical or flat universe. The borderline: the universe expands forever, but ever more slowly, with a˙→0.
Maximum size of a closed universe
amax=−3E4πGρi(E<0)
In words
a sub max equals minus 4 pi G rho sub i over 3E (E less than 0)
The names open, closed and flat describe geometry, which comes later in the course. For now they label how the universe evolves in time.
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ȧ² = 2E + 1/a for the three cases (units where 8πGρᵢ/3 = 1), computed. The closed curve reaches zero at a_max = 5, where the universe turns around (it never gets larger); the flat one approaches zero only as a → ∞.
With h0=0.67 (the Planck value Guth uses) that is 8.4×10−30 g/cm³, about five protons per cubic metre — some 10−29 times the density of water, a far better vacuum than anything made in a laboratory.
Worked example
How big does a closed universe get?
At some initial time a matter-only universe has Ωi=2. Taking ai=1, how large does it grow before it recollapses? What if Ωi=1.01?
Express E with Ω
With ai=1 and a˙i=Hi: E=21Hi2−34πGρi. Since 34πGρc=21Hi2, this is E=21Hi2(1−Ωi), negative for Ωi>1.
Ωi=2 gives amax=2: the universe only doubles in size. Ωi=1.01 gives amax=101. The closer Ω starts to 1, the longer the universe behaves almost exactly like the flat case.
What does the real universe do? In 2013 Guth summarised the measurements as:
the total density is within about half a percent of critical, Ωtotal≈1;
matter (ordinary and dark) makes up only about 30% of it, Ωmatter≈0.3;
the rest, about 70%, is dark energy, discovered in 1998.
So today the pressureless equations on this page do not describe our universe well. They apply to the long era of matter domination, from roughly 50,000 years after the Big Bang until a few billion years ago, when dark energy took over. Before 1998, inflation theorists expected Ω=1 while observers kept finding 0.2–0.3 in matter; both turned out to be partly right.
da over dt equals const over a to the power 1/2 which gives a to the power 1/2 da equals const dt which gives 2 over 3 a to the power 3/2 equals const times t plus c prime
Computed growth of the scale factor, for two universes with the same size and expansion rate today. Gravity makes the flat universe decelerate, so it reached today's size sooner: its age is 2/3 of 1/H₀.
Guth works out the consequence for the age of the universe in Lecture 8:
Worked example
The age of a flat matter-only universe
For a∝t2/3, find the Hubble rate as a function of time. If today H0=67.4 km/s/Mpc, how old would such a universe be?
Hubble rate
H=a˙/a=t2/332t−1/3=3t2, so the age is t0=3H02.
Numbers
1/H0=(97.8/67.4)×1010 yr =14.5 billion years, so t0=32×14.5=9.7 billion years.
A problem
Some stars appear to be older than that. A flat universe of matter alone is too young — one of the clues that something else, dark energy, is in the universe. Later lectures come back to this tension between the age of the universe and the ages of the oldest stars.
Today: the present time, about 13.8 billion years after the Big Bang in the real universe (simple models on some pages give other ages). Say it: “t nought”.